Crow-Armstrong, Rafaela and Pages Make the Case for MLB’s Best Center Fielder

Three center fielders can each make a credible claim to baseball’s best defensive season, and the numbers don’t produce a clean winner. Pete Crow-Armstrong led MLB’s Fielding Run Value measure, Ceddanne Rafaela topped Defensive Runs Saved, and Andy Pages ranked first in Runs Effectively Defended. Each finished first in one of the three systems, leaving the debate to turn on how much weight to give range, throwing and the small mistakes that rarely make highlight reels.

Crow-Armstrong is the obvious choice for many fans. His spectacular catches and frequent appearances in highlight packages have made his defense easy to remember. The statistical picture is less settled. Sports Info Solutions’ Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) put Rafaela first, Pages second and Crow-Armstrong third. MLB’s Fielding Run Value ranked Crow-Armstrong first, followed by Rafaela and Pages. Chris Dial’s Runs Effectively Defended (RED), a component of the Sabermetric Defensive Index used in Gold Glove voting, put Pages first, Crow-Armstrong second and Rafaela third.

The 21st annual Fielding Bible Awards were scheduled to be announced Thursday, October 22. The voting arrives amid an unusual split: strong public enthusiasm for Crow-Armstrong, and three leading measures that each point to a different player. Mark Simon, head of editorial at Sports Info Solutions, says he voted for Rafaela after weighing the evidence for months. He also sees a reasonable case for either Crow-Armstrong or Pages.

Crow-Armstrong’s range sets the standard

The strongest part of Crow-Armstrong’s case is how much ground he covers. He led center fielders in the Range component of DRS, as well as in Outs Above Average and RED’s range measure. His outfield jump figures also led MLB, according to Statcast’s outfield jump numbers.

His 18 Range Runs Saved were the most by a center fielder since Harrison Bader recorded the same total in 2021. That was the first season Sports Info Solutions adjusted its calculation to account for outfielders’ pre-pitch positioning. The number is exceptional, but Simon cautions against treating it as unmatched: past Fielding Bible winners Kevin Kiermaier, Kevin Pillar and Byron Buxton have their own claims to comparable range.

Range alone didn’t put Crow-Armstrong atop DRS. The metric gave him no additional Runs Saved for his throwing arm, a result that drew criticism from Cubs fans. Simon explains that Sports Info Solutions scores outfield arm value based on outcomes. Throwing out a runner carries substantial value, especially when the throw reaches its target without a cutoff man. Preventing a runner from taking an extra base also counts, though at a smaller fraction of a run. The fielder’s depth when collecting the ball affects the value of both a hold and a throw-out.

Runners advanced against Crow-Armstrong on 52% of opportunities, five percentage points better than the MLB average. But he recorded only five assists, and just two came without a cutoff man. Rafaela and Pages had higher totals in both categories that matter to the arm calculation.

Another part of DRS accounts for Good Fielding Plays, Defensive Misplays and Errors. Sports Info Solutions tracks about 30 types of positive plays and 60 types of mistakes, assigning a fraction of a run to each. Outfield examples include cutting off a ball to keep a single from becoming a double, mishandling a hit, or throwing the ball past a cutoff man. Data scouts record these plays using rules originally developed by Bill James to make judgments as consistent as possible.

Those less visible events mattered here. Crow-Armstrong lost two Runs Saved in this part of the system, while Pages gained three; Rafaela’s total was unchanged. Crow-Armstrong had eight misplays involving mishandled hits that cost his team a chance at an out or allowed a runner to take an extra base. He also had six wasted throws after a hit, error or sacrifice fly. That adds up to 14 such plays, compared with eight for Rafaela and four for Pages.

Those details don’t erase Crow-Armstrong’s extraordinary range. They help explain why one system places him third when another puts him comfortably first. Calling him the season’s top center fielder is defensible; the available numbers don’t make it the only defensible call.

Rafaela combines range with the arm

Rafaela’s case rests on balance. His range value fell short of Crow-Armstrong’s, and his arm value was below Pages’ in some measures, but the combination was the strongest in DRS. It’s also a familiar profile: Rafaela won the Fielding Bible Award the previous year, when he had 20 Runs Saved to Crow-Armstrong’s 15. This season marked his second straight year leading DRS.

Rafaela makes more plays than expected on shallow and medium-depth fly balls, holds his own on deep balls and adds value through his throws. Runners advanced against him on 44% of opportunities, the lowest rate among center fielders. The MLB average was 57%. He led American League center fielders with eight assists, the third-highest total in MLB, and six throws reached their target without a cutoff man. He matched his eight-assist total from the prior season.

Fielding Run Value assigns less value to Rafaela’s arm than DRS does. That difference reflects how the systems measure defense; it doesn’t undo the evidence that he’s an excellent fielder. Statcast measures also rank him among the strongest center fielders for jumps and arm strength.

Pages makes up ground with throws

Pages is close to Rafaela in the DRS results and edges Crow-Armstrong in that system, despite a smaller range contribution. He ranked fifth in the DRS range component, a strong mark but a clear step behind Crow-Armstrong. His arm closes much of that gap.

Runners advanced against Pages on 54% of opportunities, a higher rate than against Rafaela or Crow-Armstrong. But Pages recorded 14 outfield assists: six more than Rafaela and nine more than Crow-Armstrong. Opponents challenged his arm more often, and enough of those attempts ended in outs to add meaningful value. An assist can change a play twice, recording an out while removing a runner from the bases. A series of those plays can quickly shift a defensive metric.

That makes the choice depend partly on what a voter values most: Crow-Armstrong’s range, Rafaela’s blend of range and throwing, or Pages’ assist total and positive results on throws. Simon cast his ballot for Rafaela, putting particular trust in DRS. He wouldn’t try to talk a voter out of choosing Crow-Armstrong or Pages, either. The practical takeaway is that all three put together standout seasons, while the award vote will reflect how each evaluator weighs different kinds of defensive value.

Mark Simon is the head of editorial for Sports Info Solutions. SIS created the metric Defensive Runs Saved that has been used to evaluate players back to 2003 and is also the originator of The Fielding Bible Awards, which have celebrated defensive excellence since 2006.

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