Misiorowski’s Fastball Command Meets a Rays Staff Running on Empty

Game 5 may turn on a familiar question: can Tampa Bay get Jacob Misiorowski’s fastball down, or will he keep it riding above the bats? The Milwaukee right-hander held the Rays to one run in five innings in Game 1, and the matchup now tilts toward his ability to repeat that outing against a Tampa Bay staff short on rested, multi-inning options. For the Brewers, the issue is whether his command lets his velocity dictate the at-bats. For the Rays, it’s whether they can turn a difficult matchup into a long night for him.

Misiorowski’s location sets the terms

Misiorowski finished the regular season 15-6 with a 3.10 ERA and a 116 DRA-. His Game 1 line was less overpowering than usual: five innings, one run and three strikeouts, his lowest strikeout total of the season. That lower strikeout count matters because it suggests the outing wasn’t simply a case of overpowering Tampa Bay. But the raw velocity still matters. Even when his fastball shape has softened, a pitch at 103 mph is difficult to square up, and hitters have little margin to recover if they’re late.

The Rays managed only five balls in play above 95 mph in that first meeting. Junior Caminero supplied the one truly dangerous contact, driving a liner over Garrett Mitchell’s head. The sharper concern for Milwaukee is command. Misiorowski’s best version locates his 103 mph four-seamer above the belt, where hitters have less time to catch up and often have to make a hurried decision about whether to swing. In Game 1, too many fastballs drifted lower, giving Tampa Bay a better chance to make contact. That’s a small difference in location with a large effect on what the hitter can do.

That distinction could decide how long he lasts. The Rays got him out after 78 pitches by creating traffic as the lineup saw him again. Reaching base doesn’t require a string of hard hits; walks and extended at-bats can raise the pitch count just as effectively. If they can repeat that pressure, Milwaukee may need its bullpen in the middle innings. If Misiorowski gets through the top of the order a third time, Aaron Ashby and Abner Uribe are waiting behind him, and the game could quickly become harder for Tampa Bay to reach. The numbers here are underwhelming as a strikeout performance, but the five innings still gave Milwaukee a workable template.

Tampa Bay’s innings problem

The Rays’ planned answer was Nick Martinez, who matched Misiorowski in Game 1. But manager Kevin Cash used Martinez for two innings and 33 pitches in a bid to keep the season alive, leaving him an unlikely choice to start again. Ian Seymour offered little relief: the left-hander threw 32 pitches to get through the 12th inning, recording just one inning of work. That workload narrows the club’s choices before the game even begins. Tampa Bay can’t treat the pitching plan as a clean rotation of fresh arms.

Steven Matz is the only fresh reliever with a track record of handling multiple innings. The day off after Game 5 helps, but Tampa Bay still needs someone to cover substantial ground. Matz has already been asked to do so in this series. He faced eight batters in Game 1 and walked three, then appeared again in both Games 2 and 3. He was a starter this season and the bullpen’s second left-hander, so his repeated use has made him a conspicuous part of Cash’s late-series plan. (And this is the part most people overlook: a pitcher’s ability to cover innings only helps if he can do so without letting baserunners turn a bridge into another crisis.)

Cash will likely ask Matz to navigate the lineup once. Two innings would give Tampa Bay a useful bridge; needing that much work in a single inning would make the night more precarious. The Rays’ pitching plan is less a fixed sequence than a search for enough outs from arms that have already been used. If you’re watching for the point where the game turns, pay attention to whether Tampa Bay can get through the middle innings without stretching one reliever beyond the job he can handle.

A missed chance on the roster

Tampa Bay had another possible option in rookie Brody Hopkins. The Rays added him to their ALCS roster despite his wildness in limited major-league action, but never used him and later replaced him with Garrett Cleavinger. In a Game 5 that could demand an unconventional innings solution, Hopkins’ unused availability now looks like a missed roll of the dice. That doesn’t mean he would have solved the problem: his wildness gave the club a reason to hesitate, and a high-pressure appearance could have created its own trouble.

Still, roster choices have consequences when a series reaches a deciding game. Carrying Hopkins meant Tampa Bay had a possible arm available; not using him left the club with less information about what he could offer in this setting. The move to Cleavinger may have reflected a different need, but it also closed that particular option. A single unused roster spot can look inconsequential during a series, then become more visible when the available innings are running short.

What the matchup means for Game 5

The Brewers arrive with a defined path: Misiorowski needs to keep his fastball elevated, then hand the game to Ashby and Uribe. Tampa Bay’s route depends on making him work and finding enough length from a staff that has little left to spare. Here’s the thing: the Rays don’t need to solve every pitch to change the game’s shape. They need to make his command matter, keep at-bats alive, and put enough traffic on base that Milwaukee has to make a decision earlier than it wants.

That said, even a successful plan at the plate won’t automatically fix Tampa Bay’s innings problem. If the Rays can’t get substantial work from their starter or first relievers, pressure will shift to a bullpen that has already been used heavily in the series. Misiorowski’s location and Cash’s available arms are linked questions: the longer the right-hander stays in, the less Tampa Bay has to ask of its own staff. If he leaves early, the Rays still have to turn that opportunity into a lead before Milwaukee’s late-inning options take over.

This is more significant than it looks. Game 1 showed that Misiorowski can be hittable when his fastball misses its preferred location, while the series has exposed how few easy innings Tampa Bay can count on. The game may come down to which team can force the other to abandon its preferred script first. One problem at a time.