Cleveland Guardians (2) at Tampa Bay Rays (1), 5:00 PM ET

Pitching Matchup:

CLE: Foster Griffin (15-6, 3.60 ERA, 93 DRA-)
TB: Drew Rasmussen (16-5, 2.67 ERA, 75 DRA-)

Drew Rasmussen’s Rise

The spotlight shines on Drew Rasmussen as he prepares to take the mound for the Rays. This postseason could be his opportunity to establish himself as an ace. His impressive season has seen him become the first pitcher to maintain an ERA below 3.00 for five consecutive seasons since Max Scherzer, whose run spanned 2015-2019. Despite injuries sidelining him in 2023 and 2024, Rasmussen’s durability has shone through with 322 innings pitched over 61 starts in the past two years. Most expect him to be a runner-up for the AL Cy Young award and may even produce postseason magic.

In his last outing, Rasmussen delivered a career-defining performance against the Yankees, amassing a game score of 88 while striking out 10 and allowing only one hit—a triple in the eighth inning. This kind of effectiveness in a crucial game is no small feat. His evolution as a pitcher is underscored by a notable reduction in his reliance on his four-seam fastball, showcasing a more diverse pitching arsenal. It speaks to his development and understanding of how to get hitters out effectively with a variety of pitches. (And this is the part most people overlook.)

Here’s the thing: he displayed all of his pitches effectively against the Yankees, with utilization rates between 15% and 27% across five offerings in his last start. This adaptability, paired with the ability to generate swings and misses across the board, makes him a challenging matchup for Guardians hitters. His opponents will have to be wary of his slider and changeup, which have become vital components in his strategy, allowing him to keep batters guessing.

Foster Griffin’s Potential

On the other hand, Foster Griffin, who has had quite the journey in the last year, finds himself in a key role for the Guardians. Despite an unflattering 5.61 ERA since joining Cleveland at the trade deadline, his underlying metrics tell a different story. In September, his FIP was an impressive 2.34, which indicates his performance may have been hampered by circumstance. Delving into this detail reveals that Griffin might have faced tough luck with defense, leading to an inflated ERA. His ability to limit hard contact and a rising strikeout rate, with seven strikeouts against 11 batters faced in his last appearance, point toward potential for a strong outing.

Griffin’s true versatility lies in his pitching arsenal, which includes as many as seven different pitches. His cutter has been his most widely utilized pitch, but his strategic shift in his last performance reflected a growing maturity on the mound. By diversifying his pitch selection rather than leaning heavily on the cutter, he’s shown a willingness to adapt and improve, essential traits for a pitcher looking to find success at this level.

Implications for the Series

As both teams gear up for this pivotal ALCS game, the outcomes of Griffin’s performance and the Rays’ strategic approach with Rasmussen will likely dictate the tempo of the series. If Griffin can build on his strong September, he may surprise many, allowing the Guardians to steal an early game on the road. Conversely, if Rasmussen continues his dominant form, the Rays could extend their momentum deeper into the postseason.

This matchup is more significant than it looks. It not only sets the tone for the series but also showcases the craftsmanship of two pitchers at different stages in their careers. For fans and analysts alike, the implications stretch beyond this game; they hint at the future roles these players may assume in their respective teams. If you’re working in this space, keep an eye on how these dynamic pitching performances unfold. They could very well shape the narrative of this postseason.